Football Picks

A look back at Week 1

2007-09-09T20:37:00.000-07:00

One of the most important thing a good handicapper can do is learn from every pick. I try to learn from wins and from losses. So let's take a quick (believe me, I take a much longer look) look at some week 1 picks.

New England -6.5 was a TOP PICK winner at ScottsPicks.com - this was one of the better picks of the day. Historically the Pats own the Jets which we knew, I really thought Moss would have impact - he did. And the Colts did us a favor, I really believe that Indy looking that good lit a little more fire under the Pats. So this was a solid winner.

Jags -6.5 was our only members loss on Sunday and looking back I broke my rule against young quarterbacks, playing on Garrard was a mistake then all week we heard a lot about how bad Tennessee was going to be and this series is always close - I should have known better and although I still thing the Jags are a better team than Tenn this was not a great pick.

I'm also ready to play "under" on the Chiefs in every game of the season. They'll be a conservative offense even when (if) they do get anything going but right now they have absolutely no threat of a pass game and for a head coach that loves to settle for field goals they have no FG kicker.

Of course I'll have to learn from my own mistake on Thursday Night. Among my off season notes was "play Indy under earlier in the season - the D will be better and they will run more with Addai established". I also had "Saints will fall off without the emotional wave to ride". So what do I do the first game of the season, I get caught up in the Saints/Colts "shootout" talk and play over incorrectly - and it was only a late second half run from Indy to get it close to the number.

Live and learn. And as I've said many times. Not all losing bets are bad bets. If you're new to ScottsPicks.com or the blog I'll explain that philosophy later - shoot me an e-mail if you'd like me to expand sooner rather than later.

Scott

NFL Picks - Week 1

2007-09-08T20:52:00.000-07:00

Week 1 always presents some challenges that are unique to week 1 only. First, how much do I let pre-season influence what I had in my mind during the summer about each team? It's tough to completely ignore - I do look at rookies and players coming off injuries to see how they're progressing. But in pre-season football most teams do very little like they'll do it in the regular season so I never take too much away. There is also some conservative lines out there - Vegas knows the betting public doesn't have a good idea about these teams either so lines are often adjusted for this factor. Also, the public doesn't ignore the pre-season as much as you and I do because we know better and again some lines may have some adjustments for this factor. So there is plenty of opportunity to win in week 1 and I've got all our picks posted at ScottsPicks.com

My free blog only pick this week is San Diego to roll over the Bears. The Bears are one of the team this year that I expect to drop off a lot - perhaps as much as any team in the league. It starts by getting beat up by the Chargers.

Good Luck in week 1!

No such thing as a lock!

2007-09-01T20:54:00.001-07:00

I've said it many, many times and I've had very solid evidence to back me up every time. But today, the best case was made for the undeniable statement - THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CAN'T LOSE BET!

Don't listen to any handicapper or any handicapping service that tells you they have one!

Michigan AT HOME versus Appalachian State (Div I-AA)
Granted, App St is the best (back-to-back Championships) I-AA team (now called something else, I'm not even sure what, but you get the idea) but still they're at #5 in the nation, national title contender!

There was no line on the game. Scores like 63-0, 77-10, etc... are what you expect in this type of game. A 49-10 win would be considered a let down by Michigan in a game like this.

So on Friday if I had asked if you thought Michigan straight up over Appalachian State couldn't lose....do you think people would have said yes?????

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A CAN'T LOSE BET!!!

FYI....our college football members picks at ScottsPicks.com went 4-1 in week 1 of the college football season!

Pre-Season Week 3

2007-08-22T21:46:00.000-07:00

The closest thing to real football until September! Starters actually playing the whole first half, well with most teams anyway. But still, it's pre-season.

I'll make a quick comment on Larry Johnson coming back. Can we now talk about how the Chiefs offensive line sucks, LJ knows it, knows he's not going to have the monster numbers and knew this was his time to get paid! So be it.....let's play football!!!

Week 3 we see some lines that look a little more like actually football game lines but still a lot of 2.5 and 3 point numbers. We don't love much this week but can't help but think that Cinncy/Atlanta OVER 38.5 on Monday Night looks pretty good as the Bengals really need to have a big game on offense and we believe they will be very focused to do just that. We won't need much from Atlanta (probably good) to have this one go "over" the number.

Pre-Season gets a little better....

2007-08-16T20:59:00.000-07:00

A couple of winners last week was nice...

Week 2 of the pre-season is at least a little bit better, the starters are in the games longer so mop up time is much less. Next week is the most competitive with most teams giving starters the most time they'll see in the pre-season. It's still hard to watch pre-season football games.

We've got a few additional picks posted at ScottsPicks.com but the bonus play for our blog readers is to play Denver and Dallas OVER the total. Denver has some depth and looked sharp early in their first game. Cowboys may be looking to try a little longer in this game as well so both halves should see some points.

Good Luck!

13-10

2007-08-10T20:14:00.001-07:00

Three of the four pre-season games tonight ended 13-10.....

If you've ever needed evidence of just how popular the NFL has become, there are more NFL Pre-Season games on national television - both broadcast and cable channels, then ever before so they can show 13-10 games.

The regular season opener is less than 4 weeks away...

Pre-Season Football really gets going!

2007-08-08T20:46:00.001-07:00

Off to a nice start with a winner last week here on the blog and at ScottsPicks.com we gave you another win absolutely free!

As posted on the site I like both New Orleans and Pittsburgh who of course are playing in their second game against teams in their first, always a big advantage. A few more free picks on the site as well.

One more play I like this weekend is KC/Clev UNDER 36
Both teams will have trouble scoring during the regular season, don't expect much in the pre-season from either.

Be sure to visit ScottsPicks.com all season long to get our full coverage of the both NFL and College Football plus, new this season Scott's insights, thoughts and opinions about everything sports handicapping related right here......

Pre-Season Game 1 in 2007

2007-08-04T12:07:00.001-07:00

Handicapping pre-season football is very different than handicapping football games that actually count, that do matter and that you actually know the names of the players playing in the second half. When handicapping pre-season football some of the keys we look at are coaches historic records - does the coach seem to put more importance on pre-season games than most coaches? Also note when a team has a new coach they may be more inclined to play the first team more often and emphasis simulating regular season play calling and action longer than more veteran coaches that have a good idea of the team they have. Another factor to consider in pre-season football handicapping is QB - both who and how many. If there is a battle for the #1 spot at QB you can expect both guys to get action with the first team which generally means they'll be on the field longer. Also - look at QB depth, how do the teams 3rd and 4th QBs compare? Especially in early games since they'll play most of the game. Lastly - pay attention to which pre-season game it is for each team. Is one team in their 3rd game (when starters play the most) and another in only their 2nd?

So with all that said, who do we like in the Hall of Fame game on Sunday? We've posted are preferred play for free at ScottsPicks.com which is a play on the total in this debut game. We do not have a strong preference for the side winner but based on the new coach theory above we'd lean to taking the Steelers -2.5 points.

Welcome to the Football Handicapping Blog from ScottsPicks.com

2007-08-03T18:41:00.000-07:00

During the NFL and College football season we'll be posting our thoughts on everything football handicapping related. We'll even have some picks.....
Please check back soon!